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Winston Churchill once said: «Generals are always preparing for the last war.» His compatriot political scientist Martin White added: «And international organizations are always created to prevent the past war.» It is likely that the international system will soon begin to prepare for coronavirus pandemic prevention. And the vaccine for COVID-19 will appear when it mutates to the level of seasonal SARS.
Meanwhile, the pandemic has already seriously changed both global politics and the global economy. For example, all conference life has moved online. All forums — on security, on economics, on culture, on ecology, with all the backstage conversations, meetings «in the fields», receptions and work breakfasts — everything boiled down to a picture on the monitor screen.
At first glance, it seems that nothing terrible happened – big trouble, the hotel and restaurant business suffered. However, everything is much more serious. Politicians are used to looking each other in the eye. As George W. Bush said about his meeting with Vladimir Putin: «I looked into his eyes and saw that he was a direct and trustworthy man.»
The rave reviews of Nursultan Nazarbayev from Western leaders after personal meetings with him are widely known. Everyone also knows what role the personal meetings of the first president with Boris Yeltsin or skiing with Putin and Lukashenko had played. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, being the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the mid-90s, met with his Russian colleagues Andrei Kozyrev and Yevgeny Primakov. But if he had, as they say, a strictly business relationship with the first, then at the meetings with the second, there was noticeable mutual sympathy.
Now, you can't look your negotiating partner in the eye, you can't shake their hand, you can't tell a joke. And without this, serious issues cannot be resolved. In any case, the leaders of the European Union were able to agree on measures to restore the economy only during a «live» meeting, albeit in masks, without hugs and even without shaking hands. The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) summit is also planned to be held «in real life», as well as the meeting of the leaders of the Central Asian countries.
A new elite club of states is being formed before our very eyes. In addition to the super-closed nuclear club (from which we once decided to leave) and the space club (which, with some reservations, our country can also be included), a club of states will soon appear that can independently create a vaccine against the new virus (our scientists say that we might also get included).
However, the fundamental factors continue to shape international politics.
The key one is the ongoing economization of international politics. There is a struggle for access to resources and technologies, for attracting investments and a place in global value chains.
The coronavirus has become a test of flexibility and resilience for the world's leading economies. China was the first to pass this exam successfully. After a historic (the first since the publication of data in 1992) drop in GDP by 6.8% in the first quarter of this year, the Chinese economy in the second quarter showed an increase of 3.2%. UBS Group analysts predict GDP growth of 5.5% in the third quarter and 6% in the fourth. At the end of the year, China's economy is expected to grow by 2.5%.
This is a good sign for Kazakhstan, as China is our largest trading partner. Global self-isolation has led to a decline in world trade. According to the World Bank, the volume of world trade in the first half of 2020 has decreased by 13.4%.
However, the coronavirus has hardly affected Kazakhstan’s trade with China. Our main export commodity – oil — is purchased by the Chinese in the same volume as before. According to the PetroChina West Pipeline Company, more than 5.34 million tons of crude oil were transported through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline in the first half of the year, while last year — more than 10.88 million tons. In general, the volume of exports to China in the first half of the year amounted to 4.8 billion dollars (18.6% of all Kazakhstani exports).
China, in turn, also continues to increase exports, primarily to the United States and Europe. In July, it grew by 7.2% compared to July last year, amounting to $ 237.6 billion. It is important for us that during the period of global quarantine, the volume of traffic by rail has increased, including through Kazakhstan's territory.
Initially, rail transportation from China to Europe was more of a political than an economic project. Each of the shipped containers was half paid by the state, and as recently as last year, there were reports of containers shipped empty simply to report back to management on the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Everything has changed today. According to the latest figures from the state-owned Chinese Railways, the highest ever number of 1,232 trains were sent from China to Europe in July. There is no question of empty containers. On the contrary, the trains are getting longer. The number of trains to Europe has increased by 68%, compared to the last year, and the number of containers has increased by 73%. This year, in just seven months, 6354 flights to Europe took place, which is 41 percent more than a year earlier. Most of them, we emphasize, passed through Kazakhstan.
In addition, China is an important investor for us. The implementation of projects continues, despite the pandemic, but in compliance with preventive and protective measures. So, in July, a unique operation was carried out to deliver four huge propane tanks weighing more than 500 tons each to the Integrated Gas Chemical Complex (general contractor — China National Chemical Engineering Company) under construction in the Atyrau region. The route passed from the port of Ulsan (South Korea) to Istanbul, then along the Black Sea, through the Volga-Don Canal — to the Caspian Sea, then along the Ural-Caspian Canal to the Atyrau river port.
Another factor shaping tomorrow's international agenda is food.
According to experts, the greatest losses from the global economic recession will be incurred by developing countries, which cannot allocate significant amounts to support their national economies.
The head of the World Food Program (WFP), David Beasley, recently announced that by the end of this year the number of people suffering from food insecurity will almost double — from 140 million before the pandemic to 270 million. «We are at risk of a famine of biblical proportions», summed up Beasley. In order to reduce the threat of hunger and generally reduce the negative impact on poor countries, the entire world community needs to show solidarity.
Kazakhstan is not in danger of hunger. On the contrary, we are increasing food exports, we have long been one of the important players in the world wheat market, and we are gradually strengthening our positions in the Chinese market. We also provide assistance to other countries, and not only food assistance.
Recently, it was decided to create the Kazakhstan International Development Agency KazAID in the form of a non-profit joint stock company with 100% state participation in its authorized capital. KazAID will become the operator in the field of official development assistance, which Kazakhstan has been providing for a long time both through UN institutions and bilaterally. In total, over the years of independence, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we have provided assistance of $ 500 million, where the funds were directed to social and economic development, as well as the construction of schools, hospitals, and transport infrastructure.
After the approval of the Basic Directions of the State Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the field of official development assistance for 2021-2025, this work will take on a systemic character. The countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan are indicated as the main recipients of our aid in the «main recepeints». This means that our country priorities have not changed, we have previously helped mainly these countries.
Now let's get back to the issue of trust in the age of video conferencing. Let's say the heads of state will still meet «in real life» and will be able to look into each other's eyes, even pat each other on the shoulder. After all, values and principles, of course, unite countries, but people without a ritual ceremony cannot feel like a single team, as it has been the case since the time of hunting for mammoths.
But what are ministers, senior officials, experts supposed to do? They have to meet much more often than presidents. So far, they do it exclusively online; it is highly likely that this will continue. This is convenient in its own way, savings on travel and flights are always welcome. But what about the behind-the-scenes conversations, over a cup of coffee and not on the record? Conference diplomacy should be different from a conference call at an enterprise.
If the human factor does not work, it will be replaced by the institutional one. In other words, the demand for confidence-building measures and relevant international institutions is growing. One of them is the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, created at the time on the initiative of Kazakhstan. Moreover, in September, the chairmanship of the CICA is transferred to our country, so one can accurately predict the revival of the work of this organization.
Nikolay Kuzmin, political scientist
Leading Researcher of the
Institute for Security and Cooperation
in Central Asia
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